Experience has taught me to know what I do not know. Pretending we can outfox Trump and know where his decisions are going, before he makes them, is not a sound investment approach. Instead, we have tried to understand what is going on, work out the implications based on what we know and try to insulate ourselves from the chaos (as best we can). Through this approach, we have tried not to make a call on outcomes that are unpredictably binary, that is being either right or wrong with no in-between. We have spent a lot of time over the past few weeks going back to our investment basics because at the end of the day, and no matter what direction the market is travelling, we are always trying to identify and exploit mispriced opportunities.
